It was a bitter victory. After occupying a piece of NATO territory within the Baltics, my workforce efficiently transformed the land seize right into a diplomatic coup, successful main concessions from america that will refashion Europe’s safety structure in Russia’s favor. I used to be President Vladimir Putin, and I had simply secured an enormous win for my mission of Russian aggrandizement.
Fortunately, this was not actuality. It was a battle recreation organized by the German newspaper Die Welt and the German armed forces, designed to check Berlin’s readiness for a safety disaster caused by Russian aggression and American indifference. I’d been invited to characterize my residence nation of Russia; there was a sure piquancy in taking part in the person whose invasion of Ukraine pushed me, in addition to a lot of my pals and colleagues, into exile.
The outcomes have been chilling. The sport, which passed off final December, made plain how believable a brand new Russian assault is — and the way susceptible NATO could be to at least one. The battle in Iran, handing Russia a recent benefit and fracturing the West additional, has solely worsened the scenario. The train made me fear that until NATO international locations get their act collectively, one other invasion may very well be coming.
The sport was arrange like this. In October 2026, Russia — disadvantaged of its maximalist battle goals in a Might cease-fire with Ukraine that nonetheless left the management assured — is searching for retribution for Europe’s assist to Kyiv. Underneath the quilt of a giant navy train, the Kremlin locations 15,000 elite troops in Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, separated by a mere 40-mile-long strip that runs by way of Lithuania.
My workforce seized this strip of land, underneath the guise of creating a “humanitarian hall” to provide meals to Kaliningrad. We used drones to realize management of the realm, remotely mined the border between Poland and Lithuania to make it tougher for Warsaw to intervene and, lastly, invaded with troops and tanks. We additionally introduced in Russian docs and journalists, to extend the variety of civilian casualties if NATO hit again.
Then we opened a dialogue with the White Home, insisting that Russian troopers could be instantly withdrawn as soon as the Europeans accommodated our calls for. Chief amongst them have been a rollback of NATO navy infrastructure in Europe and nonexpansion of the alliance — just about what Mr. Putin demanded earlier than invading Ukraine. Our place was easy: Give us what we wish, or put together for an additional battle that might go nuclear.
With the midterms only a week away, the White Home selected to have interaction in talks. They needed to keep away from American navy involvement and as an alternative current stopping World Warfare III to the American folks as Mr. Trump’s accomplishment. With out Captain America main the best way, Germany selected to not use the navy instruments at its disposal — like giving fight orders to a German brigade in Lithuania — to confront the aggressor.
As soon as the U.S. president stood down, NATO was successfully deactivated: Absent America’s buy-in, allies couldn’t use the group’s collective protection plans or command-and-control system. They may do little aside from watch as Mr. Trump agreed to high-level talks with the Kremlin. By a mixture of navy boldness, diplomatic crafty and brinkmanship, we discredited Article 5, NATO’s founding precept of collective protection, and fortified Russia’s place as a key energy in Europe.
Some policymakers in NATO capitals are skeptical that Russia may pull this off, and never with out motive. In fact, the Russians are unlikely to have the factor of shock on their aspect. NATO intelligence businesses rigorously monitor the motion of Russian troops: Any try and mass troopers could be instantly identified to Western generals. However there are causes to imagine that the Kremlin, underneath sure situations, would ponder an armed assault on NATO territory.
First, there’s motive. All through his quarter-century within the Kremlin, Mr. Putin has spoken in blunt phrases of NATO being a serious menace to Russia’s safety — and by no means extra so than now. By invading Ukraine, sarcastically, Mr. Putin has turned NATO right into a a lot greater hazard. The Kremlin ruler has repeatedly informed Russians that the actual battle is just not in opposition to Ukraine however in opposition to all of NATO. He has mentioned it so usually that he should imagine it himself.
Then there’s the energy of Russia’s navy. Regardless of its failure to crush Ukraine, Russia now has a much bigger land drive and produces extra tanks, shells and missiles than earlier than the invasion. What’s extra, in distinction to potential NATO adversaries, it is aware of how you can struggle fashionable drone warfare. In our recreation, the military’s capability to determine hearth management over a strip of NATO land with out leaving its place was an important factor in our success.
There may be additionally Mr. Putin’s data setting. Pandemic-induced isolation was one of many precursors to the invasion of Ukraine: Surrounded by a small circle of sycophants, the Russian president misplaced contact with actuality. The battle has made Mr. Putin solely extra remoted and other people round him extra afraid to talk the reality. With the elites and broader society cowed by repression, what’s there to cease Mr. Putin from making one other disastrous determination?
Mr. Putin’s notion of the adversary issues, too. Again in 2022, he clearly thought the West was weak and disunited. Now, he finds a Europe that’s uncertain of itself because it takes the primary steps in a pricey and politically controversial rearmament course of. Till this effort is become gear and capabilities ample to discourage Russia, there’s a window of alternative through which Russia, although basically weaker than NATO, might have an higher hand militarily.
Final however not least, there’s Mr. Trump. No American president has put the credibility of NATO extra doubtful or created extra rifts with European allies. Throughout the battle in Iran, Mr. Trump’s disregard for the alliance has gone by way of the roof. Watching the trans-Atlantic bond implode, Mr. Putin might imagine he can mix appeals to Mr. Trump’s self-importance with nuclear intimidation to steer America to not defend Europe — simply as we did within the recreation.
The excellent news is that Europe can successfully deter the Kremlin, with or with out America. Within the state of affairs we performed, for instance, there have been low cost and fast options that will make a Russian invasion far much less possible, similar to putting World Warfare I-era minefields and fortifications alongside NATO’s border with Russia and Belarus. These may very well be mixed with Twenty first-century devices just like the much-discussed drone wall on NATO’s jap flank and maybe essentially the most potent weapon of all, resolve.
That’s all possible. However time is of the essence: Probably the most harmful interval, as I vividly discovered taking part in Mr. Putin, might quickly be upon us.