After which there have been two. It appears both West Ham or Tottenham would be the ultimate workforce relegated from the Premier League this season, and, with three video games to go, their subsequent matches – each reside on Sky Sports activities – may very well be decisive within the combat for survival.
Again-to-back wins for Spurs underneath Roberto De Zerbi has flipped the narrative and pulled them out of the underside three, the place West Ham at the moment reside, however by the point Tottenham face Leeds on Monday night time they may very well be again within the drop zone.
The Hammers, at the moment one level adrift of Spurs, must beat title favourites Arsenal, who’ve turned a nook themselves of late, to usurp their rivals, whereas a repeat of final weekend’s defeat at Brentford may show deadly.
Mathematically, nothing may be determined on this subsequent spherical of fixtures, but when Spurs open up a four-point hole, then Nuno Espirito Santo’s aspect will discover themselves with little or no room for manoeuvre and counting on two slip ups from their rivals of their ultimate two video games.
What does Opta’s supercomputer say?
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Highlights from the Premier League match between Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur.
There was a giant swing within the relegation possibilities after the final spherical of video games as West Ham misplaced 3-0 at Brentford on Saturday earlier than Spurs produced their most convincing efficiency of 2026 the next day to win 2-1 at Aston Villa and transfer out of the underside three.
Opta’s supercomputer is at the moment projecting West Ham as having greater than 80 per cent probability of taking place, whereas Spurs are at 19.3 per cent, which is a few turnaround from per week in the past.
Firstly of Could, earlier than the win at Villa, Spurs had been deemed to have a 59 per cent probability of being relegated however that has shot down, whereas West Ham’s have gone sharply within the different route. Their possibilities of taking place have greater than doubled since then.
The bookies additionally think about West Ham to be favourites to go down heading into this weekend’s video games. The Hammers are 1/4 to be relegated, whereas you may get 3/1 on Spurs.
There’s nonetheless an out of doors probability of Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace or Leeds United slipping again into the underside three. Opta is at the moment projecting them as having lower than a one per cent probability of taking place.
Mathematically, Thirteenth-placed Newcastle may nonetheless be relegated, however it will require them shedding each recreation and West Ham profitable each recreation in addition to a purpose distinction swing of 17.
Most bookies are providing odds of 125/1 for Leeds and Forest to be relegated, whereas Palace are up at 150/1, and you’ll battle to seek out bookmakers providing odds on Newcastle.
What does the shape inform us?
This has grow to be one of the vital aggressive Premier League relegation battles of the final 20 years, which makes it a lot more durable to foretell what will occur within the ultimate few weeks of the season.
Current outcomes on the backside extra carefully resemble a title race than a relegation scrap.
Regardless of the defeat at Brentford, West Ham have been the sixth finest workforce within the Premier League since January 17, once they defeated Spurs 1-0 on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and they’re carefully adopted by Nottingham Forest.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League match between Brentford and West Ham.
Spurs’ turnaround has been more moderen, because of the arrival of De Zerbi, and within the 4 video games he has overseen, they’ve been within the high half for type, selecting up seven factors, the identical complete as West Ham over that interval.
The shape desk considerably challenges the concept that West Ham have a a lot more durable matchup of their subsequent recreation.
In Leeds, Spurs are taking part in the second-best workforce within the Premier League over these final 4 matches and the fourth-best workforce over the past six matches, a interval during which Daniel Farke’s aspect have gone unbeaten.
Two of Leeds’ wins over that interval got here towards the relegated groups, Burnley and Wolves, however they dealt with each with ease and claimed a giant win towards third-placed Manchester United, their first at Previous Trafford since 1981. They aren’t to be underestimated.
Arsenal sit beneath Leeds – in addition to Spurs and West Ham – within the type desk over the past 4 video games. They’ve confronted a more durable schedule and seem to have overcome their momentary wobble, but it surely exhibits the Gunners are there to be bought at.
West Ham even have current type for denting Arsenal’s title bids, drawing 2-2 on the London Stadium in 2023 when Bukayo Saka missed a penalty, and inflicting a 1-0 defeat on the Gunners on the Emirates Stadium in February 2025.
Who has the hardest fixtures?
Solely Crystal Palace and Brentford are deemed to have a more durable schedule than West Ham by Opta for the Premier League run-in – and their subsequent match is the toughest of all of them.
It’s by no means a great time to play the Premier League leaders, however at crunch time within the season, with a primary title in additional than 20 years on the road, this appears to be the worst attainable time to be taking part in Arsenal, who’re simply three wins from ending their drought.
Particularly when you think about the momentum behind Mikel Arteta’s aspect, contemporary from defeating Atletico Madrid to achieve their first Champions League ultimate for 20 years, and a win over Fulham which confirmed a return to the formidable type that has introduced them right here.
West Ham, who’re successfully two factors adrift of Spurs due to their inferior purpose distinction, then face a visit to Newcastle earlier than welcoming Leeds to the London Stadium on the ultimate day.
As compared, Spurs are rated as having the eighth best schedule within the Premier League, with Monday’s recreation towards Leeds adopted by a visit to out-of-form Chelsea, who’ve misplaced their final six video games within the competitors, and a house recreation towards Everton.
What number of factors wanted for survival?
The Opta supercomputer tasks 40 factors to be sufficient to safe Premier League survival. Within the final 9 Premier League seasons, groups ending on 36 factors or extra have averted relegation, which is strictly the place West Ham are proper now.
Final season, 26 factors would have been sufficient to remain up as an exceptionally poor backside three of Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton all made a right away return to the Championship.
Spurs took benefit of the trio’s weaknesses to give attention to profitable the Europa League as they completed a dismal seventeenth on 38 factors – 13 factors above 18th-placed Leicester.
However that luxurious for Tottenham is just not there this season as they face the very actual chance of relegation to the second tier of English soccer for the primary time since 1977.
Solely three groups have been relegated with 40 factors or extra within the 20-team Premier League period – Sunderland (1996/97), Bolton (1997/98) and West Ham (2002/03) – the latter holding the report for the workforce relegated with probably the most factors with 42.
Watch West Ham vs Arsenal on Sunday, reside on Sky Sports activities Premier League from 4pm; kick-off 4.30pm.
Sunday tenth Could 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
Watch Tottenham vs Leeds on Monday, reside on Sky Sports activities Premier League from 6.30pm; kick-off 8pm.
Monday eleventh Could 6:30pm
Kick off 8:00pm