For the again half of the twentieth century (what Fortune founder Henry Luce known as “The American Century”), MBA and regulation diploma applications have been a ticket to an excellent workplace job and a path to the American Dream. The twenty first century is asking the query: What occurs when all these workplace jobs get automated?
In a dialog with the Financial Times earlier this 12 months, the CEO of Microsoft AI, Mustafa Suleyman, delivered one other in a sequence of predictions from AI leaders that white-collar work is on the precipice of a radical transformation because of AI. His timeline is eighteen months till these regulation college and MBA grads—and lots of less-credentialed friends—are out of luck.
Suleyman predicted “human-level efficiency on most, if not all skilled duties” being carried out by AI. Most duties that contain “sitting down at a pc” might be totally automated by AI inside the subsequent 12 months or 18 months, he mentioned, naming accounting, authorized, advertising, and even undertaking administration as susceptible. Suleyman’s warning echoed the viral essay of the week, a model of which was published at Fortune.com, by AI researcher Matt Shumer, who in contrast this second to February 2020, when the pandemic was about to hit America. This might be extra dramatic, although, Shumer mentioned.
Suleyman cited the exponential development in computational energy as a flashing crimson sign that AI may substitute massive swaths of pros. As “compute” advances, he mentioned, fashions will have the ability to code higher than most human coders. Shumer and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have each written about their alarm, even disappointment, at watching their life’s work quickly develop out of date.
If Suleyman’s warning sounds acquainted, that’s as a result of it was the tune of early 2025, when many CEOs issued equally apocalyptic prophecies. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned final Could AI may wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs (although just lately changed his tune). Ford CEO Jim Farley said AI would lower in half the variety of white-collar jobs within the U.S.
In The Atlantic, Josh Tyrangiel argued the U.S. wasn’t ready for the approaching AI disruption, evaluating CEOs’ latest silence on the topic to seeing “a shark fin break the water.”
However that drumbeat is starting once more, with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk saying in Davos in January that he thinks synthetic basic intelligence—AI that matches or exceeds human-level intelligence—may arrive as early as this 12 months.
AI’s actual impression on skilled jobs: blended outcomes to this point
Nevertheless, as AI consultants hypothesize about when, and if, AI will disrupt white-collar work, the know-how to this point has made solely a small splash in skilled providers. A 2025 Thomson Reuters report found attorneys, accountants, and auditors are experimenting with AI for focused duties like doc assessment and routine evaluation. However whereas the outcomes have proven marginal productiveness enhancements, they fall wanting signaling mass job displacement.
The truth is, in some cases, AI has had the reverse impact: making employees much less productive. A latest study from nonprofit Mannequin Analysis and Risk Analysis (METR) on AI’s impression on software program builders discovered the know-how really made the employees’ duties take 20% longer.
Any returns the economic system is seeing are largely confined to the tech business, suggesting that AI disruption has been restricted in the true economic system. Current research from Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok discovered that whereas revenue margins in Massive Tech elevated by greater than 20% within the fourth quarter of 2025, the broader Bloomberg 500 Index has seen virtually no change. A few days earlier, Slok had famous that “traders don’t consider AI will end in larger earnings outdoors the tech sector,” citing consensus Wall Road expectations for the S&P 500.
Nonetheless, there are early indicators AI is resulting in job displacement. About 49,135 job cuts to this point this 12 months have been AI-related, based on employment consultancy Challenger, Grey & Christmas. Whereas not citing AI as a motive for cuts, Microsoft final 12 months let go 15,000 employees. In a memo launched final July following job eliminations, CEO Satya Nadella mentioned the corporate should “reimagine our mission for a brand new period.”
Regardless of marginal workforce reductions, the markets are reacting violently to the know-how’s potential. In February, software program shares suffered an enormous selloff out of fears of automation (analysts dubbed it the “SaaSpocalypse,” for the software-as-a-service sector). The selloff got here after Anthropic and OpenAI announced the launch of agentic AI programs for enterprises that carry out lots of the key features of SaaS organizations.
Suleyman’s plan to construct ‘superintelligence‘
Suleyman is adamant in regards to the know-how’s potential. He thinks organizations will have the ability to retrofit the know-how to carry out any required job perform, enhancing productiveness throughout white-collar industries. “Creating a brand new mannequin goes to be like making a podcast or writing a weblog,” he mentioned. “It will be doable to design an AI that fits your necessities for each establishment, group, and particular person on the planet.”
Suleyman mentioned his core mission because the steward of Microsoft AI is to attain “superintelligence.” The CEO desires to attain AI self-sufficiency and cut back its reliance on OpenAI, as a substitute prioritizing the development of the corporate’s impartial fashions.
“This in spite of everything is crucial know-how of our time,” Suleyman mentioned. “We’ve got to develop our personal basis fashions that are on the absolute frontier.”
A model of this story was printed on Fortune.com on Feb. 13, 2026.
Extra on AI and white-collar work:
- AI isn’t paying off in the way in which corporations assume. Layoffs pushed by automation are failing to generate returns
- White-collar employees are quietly rebelling against AI as 80% outright refuse adoption mandates
- The China shock hollowed out manufacturing facility cities. This professor thinks the AI shock is coming to your city espresso store