The New York Knicks shocked the Cleveland Cavaliers and the whole sports activities world Tuesday evening, erasing a 22-point deficit with slightly below 8 minutes remaining within the fourth quarter to finally declare Sport 1 of the Japanese Convention finals. The Cavaliers’ win likelihood at the beginning of the Knicks’ comeback was 99.9 p.c, per ESPN’s win likelihood mannequin.
Cleveland’s victory appeared assured, till the unfathomable occurred. What the Knicks achieved appeared not possible, miraculous, even. However within the fashionable NBA, these loopy scripts truly get flipped greater than historic odds suggest. And the Knicks, specifically, ought to know this lesson properly.
Maybe surprisingly, NBA groups clinging to a 1 p.c likelihood of victory have truly emerged victorious greater than 1 p.c of the time since 2020. So, if you happen to suppose you’ve not too long ago seen “rather a lot” of comebacks after the percentages of a victory dwindle to a mere proportion level, you’re proper. The numbers lie. (Type of.)
Since 2020, NBA groups that fell to a 1 p.c win likelihood or decrease nonetheless got here again to win 98 instances in 7,786 team-game situations, a 1.26 p.c win price. These outcomes are based mostly on a customized win likelihood mannequin constructed utilizing NBA play-by-play knowledge since 2020 from hoopR, a publicly accessible on-line assortment of basketball statistics, together with in-game knowledge. That doesn’t imply these groups had been extra more likely to win than their 1 p.c likelihood implied. It signifies that, within the final six years, we’ve seen extra late-game Lazarus acts than over the whole thing of the NBA’s play-by-play pattern. Over hundreds of video games, even the longest photographs nonetheless sometimes survive, and currently it’s occurred extra.
This phenomenon seems distinctive to the NBA, in comparison with different main North American leagues. NFL groups in comparable conditions received seven instances in 998 situations since 2020, a 0.70 p.c price, utilizing a mannequin constructed from NFL play-by-play knowledge (from nflreadR, which is analogous to basketball’s hoopsR).
There’s a smaller pattern obtainable for hockey (by way of hockeyR), however utilizing an identical win likelihood mannequin from NHL play-by-play knowledge from 2020-21 to 2023-24, NHL groups received 17 instances in 2,510 situations, a 0.68 p.c price.
Baseball produced the harshest outcomes. From 2021 to 2025, an MLB crew’s win likelihood dropped to 1 p.c or decrease in 1,480 video games. Solely 5 instances did that crew come again to win, a price of 0.34 p.c.
The broader sample seems clear: Basketball creates much more late-game volatility than the opposite main sports activities on account of every sport’s distinctive strategy to scoring and time.
Win likelihood fashions estimate outcomes based mostly on what occurred traditionally in comparable conditions — rating, time remaining and sport state. The later the stage of the sport, the broader the disparity within the rating, the extra polarized the chances turn out to be. A 1 p.c likelihood doesn’t imply not possible. It means groups in these conditions nearly all the time lose, at a price of 99 out of 100, to be exact. However basketball creates extra alternatives for chaos, and for trailing groups to outlive.
Intentional fouling, 3-pointers, clock stoppages and fast possessions enable a number of scoring swings in seconds. For instance, on Tuesday, the Knicks solely closed a six-point deficit (99-93) in 30 seconds, changing two 3-pointers with the sport clock ticked from 1:25 to 0:45. That spurt dropped the Cavs’ win likelihood from 90.2 p.c to 51.6 p.c.
These components affect extra various late-game outcomes than we see within the three different main leagues we examined above. Except for the hurry-up or no-huddle offense, soccer stays largely the identical sport within the last minutes. Timeouts don’t advance the ball as they do within the NBA. In baseball, you continue to have to get three outs to finish an inning, whether or not it’s the primary or the ninth. Hockey sits someplace within the center as a result of pulled-goalie conditions can create frantic late-game stretches, however late, high-volume scoring stays comparatively scarce.
Wanting additional by the lens of those different sports activities, the Knicks’ 0.1 win likelihood interprets to a baseball crew trailing by 12 runs within the seventh inning or later. Or, if you happen to’re on the lookout for a particular second, based mostly on Tom Tango’s win expectancy, it could be equal to the bottom of the ninth, two outs, bases empty, trailing by four runs. Within the NFL, the comp can be trailing by 14 within the fourth quarter, first-and-10 at your own 25-yard line with 2 minutes remaining. Per Moneypuck, the hockey instance can be trailing 7-3 within the third interval.
These comparisons assist for instance the brilliance of the Knicks’ comeback in opposition to Cleveland. New York didn’t merely dip under a 1 p.c likelihood to win; Cleveland’s win likelihood climbed above 99.9 p.c, and the Knicks’ remained under 1 p.c for greater than 2 minutes earlier than the sport turned. Most 1 p.c comebacks require one unlikely sequence. This one, at 0.1 p.c, required a number of: fast Knicks scoring bursts, missed alternatives by Cleveland, clock stoppages, fouling and time beyond regulation. And it produced a very uncommon end result.
For the reason that 1996-97 season, the primary season for which we’ve play-by-play knowledge, the Knicks’ fourth-quarter comeback Tuesday trails solely the Los Angeles Clippers’ 24-point rally in opposition to the Memphis Grizzlies in Sport 1 of the 2012 first spherical.
Per ESPN Insights, NBA groups trailing by 22 factors within the fourth quarter of a playoff sport since 1997-98 had been 1-594 getting into Tuesday. And groups had been a meager 3-747 when down by 20 or extra within the fourth quarter of a playoff sport over the past 30 years.
However maybe probably the most mind-blowing observe of all: Per our analysis, there have been 35 NBA playoff comebacks of 20-plus factors within the play-by-play period. The Knicks at the moment are tied for probably the most with 4, alongside the Celtics and Clippers. Nonetheless, the Knicks’ are all from the final two postseasons. New York has matched the modern-league file for 20-plus-point comebacks in its final 23 postseason video games.
Even in a sport the place not possible endings occur extra typically than instinct suggests, this Knicks crew lives on the outer fringe of historic NBA chaos.
David Bearman contributed further analysis to this text.